On April 20, The Baltimore Orioles lost to the Cincinnati Reds 24-2. This capped off a series they lost to a very unimpressive Reds lineup.
The Orioles gave up 37 runs to said lineup in three games.
Through 21 games, Baltimore has the worst team ERA in baseball, at 5.43 Looking at only starting pitchers, the numbers are even higher. Baltimore sports a 6.11 starting pitcher ERA, which is comfortably the highest in the majors.
I wish I could say that this start for the Orioles pitching is unexpected. But after their lackluster moves in the free agent pitching market, there were not a lot of reasons to see this staff finding success.
The Orioles made a big move the previous offseason. They went out and traded for a premier pitcher, Corbin Burnes. Burnes had a very nice year in Baltimore. He threw 194 innings and pitched to a 2.92 ERA. The Orioles made a valiant push to keep Burnes, offering him a respectable contract. However, Burnes decided to sign with Arizona. He took a pay cut to play closer to home.
Baltimore put all their eggs in his basket. Burnes signed with the Diamondbacks relatively late. The Orioles clearly were wary of spending money while they pursued Burnes, leading them to miss out on key starting pitchers. Nonetheless, there were viable options to pivot to when Burnes signed on December 30. There even seemed to be relatively no-brainer moves they could make. Veteran Jose Quintana signed with the Brewers during spring training for only four million dollars. Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta, among others, were also available.
Instead, the Orioles signed Tomoyuki Sugano. Sugano is a 35 year old rookie from Japan. He had 1,873 innings under his belt when the O’s signed him. Sugano attempted to sign with an MLB team in 2021, but could not find an agreement. This offseason, Sugano signed a one year, 13 million dollar deal with Baltimore. Sugano had a very respectable career in Japan, with a 2.43 ERA in 12 seasons. However, questions begin to arise because he has already had a lengthy career and because he is not a real strikeout threat. The veteran has actually been as good as Baltimore could have hoped, so far. Sugano has pitched to a 3.43 ERA in four starts. However, those numbers feel like Sugano’s ceiling. Sugano has only 8 strikeouts in 21 innings, his expected ERA is 6.40 and his expected slugging percentage against is more than .100 points higher than his actual slugging percentage against.
The Orioles also gave 41 year old Charlie Morton 15 million dollars for one year. Morton has been around. He has pitched for six teams and thrown over 2,000 innings in the majors. It seemed like Morton found the fountain of youth when he pitched his best baseball in his mid thirties. However, in his forties, the innings have clearly caught up to him. Morton was relatively solid last year, pitching to a low four ERA, but it was clear that his stuff was not what it used to be. Things have gone from bad to worse for Morton now that he’s in Baltimore. His ERA is over ten through his first five starts. Morton gave up seven of the 24 runs the Orioles allowed in the April 20 game.
The Morton signing was uninspired. It is not surprising that Morton has given the Orioles uninspiring performances. Morton has the highest ERA of any qualified pitcher in the league but, due to the Orioles’ lack of depth, they have no choice but to continue starting him.
Kyle Bradish was excellent for Baltimore in 2023. Bradish had a remarkable age 26 season, skyrocketing to fourth in the Cy Young award vote, but he was diagnosed with a partial tear of his Ulnar Collateral ligament (UCL.) That diagnosis usually means that the infamous Tommy John Surgery is next. Bradish attempted to pitch through it because it was only a partial tear. Bradish received shots and worked his way back to pitching last year. However, after 34 innings, he was shut down again and had to receive the incredibly foreseeable surgery. This saga was frustrating. The partial tear was found in January but Bradish did not have surgery until June. The six month period just became a six month delay for Bradish’s health. Had he gotten TJ right away, he would be back pitching. However, Bradish is now out until at least the All Star break, perhaps longer.
The Orioles had lofty hopes for Grayson Rodriguez this year. He was a top prospect in the Orioles system. Rodriguez showed glimpses of brilliance throughout his first two seasons but he did not eclipse 125 innings in either of the seasons. He pitched to an ok 4.11 ERA. The Orioles expected Rodriguez to be an ace this year. Maybe a more positive fan would say, “good for them for trusting their guy.” However, he simply was not proven. He did not have the body of work to be trusted to be a workhorse in a roster desperate for innings. As it seems to often go with teams without a safety net, the player they desperately needed to succeed got hurt. Rodriguez is yet to make his debut this year. He continues to face setbacks in his recovery.
Zach Eflin was the Orioles’ most trustworthy pitcher down the stretch last year. Eflin had a 2.60 ERA in 9 starts after the Orioles traded for him. Unfortunately, he, too, is now down with an injury. Dean Kremer and Cade Povich were both in the opening day rotation. Now they have a role of even greater importance. Both starters have an ERA in the sixes. There are not many reasons to have confidence in either of them.
The Orioles have a lot going for them too, of course. Gunnar Henderson followed up his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2023 with an incredible 2024 season. Henderson finished fourth in MVP voting and accumulated a 9.1 WAR. The talented shortstop started the year injured and it took him some time to get back in the swing of things. He already has seemingly shaken off the rust and is getting back to his best. Cedric Mullins has been a mainstay in centerfield for over seven seasons. Mullins has gotten off
Baltimore is only three games under .500, due mainly to their excellent lineup. Their young core of hitters makes the Orioles an exciting team, but their lack of pitching depth or talent gives them the feeling of a team with a ceiling. The Orioles will get their arms back and their rotation will almost certainly improve but the question will remain. With such a good lineup, can the Orioles rotation do enough to support the lineup down the stretch and in the playoffs?
