Former President Donald Trump was recently indicted by a grand jury in New York for 34 counts of falsifying business records. The Manhattan District attorney alluded that these crimes may be related to campaign finance law, but did not explicitly state which other crime he is linking these counts to.

Professor of Political Science David O’Connell spoke with The Dickinsonian to discuss the extent to which the indictment will affect Donald Trump’s prospects in the upcoming Republican primary and the 2024 general election.

“During the primaries [the indictment] is a net positive. He’s been able to consolidate support where leading Republican elected officials have not come out in opposition to him… there is minimal polling at this point but it does seem like things are moving slightly in his direction,” O’Connell said. 

He added, “I do feel within the Republican base there is a strong overwhelming feeling that this is a politicized prosecution and that is helping secure some support.” He noted that much could change from now to the Republican primaries.

O’Connell highlighted the strong foundational support that Donald Trump has within his base. “His supporters are firm and not really persuadable…if you think about all the things that happened in his presidency his approval rating hovered within an 8-point range. He never got over 50 percent.”

“I think in the general election it hurts him with weaker Republicans, who were the type of voters who eventually did defect to Joe Biden in 2020. It may be a short-term gain for a long-term loss, regardless of whether he ultimately is convicted,” O’Connell said.

O’Connell also highlighted the politicized nature of the case. “You’re looking at an elected district attorney who campaigned explicitly on his record of taking legal action on taking legal action against the Trump administration and promising to hold Trump accountable whatever that meant,” O’Connell said. 

He hopes that politics did not dictate the outcome of the indictment, but said, “I don’t know that you can fully discount it…politicians do pay attention to what their voters want.”

So far, O’Connell believes Ron Desantis, Donald Trump’s prime opponent at the moment, has been doing a good job at staying above “the fray” regarding the indictment of Trump.

“Desantis has kind of just ignored [Donald Trump’s taunts]…but I don’t know you can do that forever,” O’Connell said. “The argument for Desantis should be simple. Trump is a loser…he didn’t win the popular vote in 2016, he didn’t win the popular vote in 2020, he’s responsible for massive Republican midterm losses in 2018, he’s responsible for losing the Georgia Senate runoffs in 2020, he’s responsible for Republican losses in 2022…that’s the argument Desantis should be making,” said O’Connell.

If Trump is convicted, O’Connell believes “it could hurt on the margins,” harming Trump’s electoral promise with weaker Republicans. However, “it’s important to know we’re talking about, as reported, falsifying business records. We’re not talking about the type of major criminal activity that might resonate in a different way,” O’Connell said.

“I know this is hard for people to accept, but [the 2024] election is about Joe Biden, it’s not about Donald Trump. And I really do believe in the importance of retrospective voting and the impact that structural factors have on political outcomes are more important than this indictment will be a potential downturn in this economy as a result of inflation, instability in the banking sector, or whatever it might be,” O’Connell said.