Dickinson students have long travelled to Bremen, Germany, where Professor of Political Science Lothar Probst taught until 2016. Probst came back to give a lecture on October 30, on account of major changes in transatlantic relations over the past year.
Probst believes the greatest changes in relations between the US and EU members came from the change of leadership in the White House. Probst argued that the Trump administration has a transactional worldview and sees Europe as a sideshow compared to East Asia.
If European security is going to be stable, then the US is important to the environment, especially given Russian aggression over the past few years.
For instance, drone incursions over Europe that would have been considered impossible years ago, either because of NATO firmness or Russian timidity, happened repeatedly in September. Probst argued that had the White House not called for a meeting with Putin during August, such incursions never would have happened.
Another area of abrasiveness on the part of the White House has been the Trump administration’s new tariffs, which have not improved relations given the economic pain caused to both sides, especially when the US was also pulling military forces out of the continent.
Finally, Denmark, an EU member, was unimpressed by the suggestion to cede Greenland to the US, which already has a base there. Had the Trump administration not taken unprecedented action against traditional allies, perhaps relations would not have fluctuated so much since January.
Internal developments in Europe may similarly contribute to a decline in relations with the US. For instance, the continuation of European aid to Ukraine has contrasted with the sporadic cutoffs in support from the US.
The EU has also declared an intention for the phasing-out of Russian gas imports, an area of importance for Probst given his participation in the Green Party of Germany.
After the lecture, the BBC reported that the White House had exempted Hungary from sanctions related to the importation of Russian gas. In contrast, the German economy is already mostly running on renewable sources while nuclear power plants are being decommissioned.
Europeans also view Russia as a major security threat, with 72% of European respondents favoring economic sanctions on Russia. If willpower to maintain a hawkish view on Russia has declined in the White House, then the EU has gone in the other direction.
Probst discussed the importance of financial aid, similar to the Marshall plan, in rebuilding war-torn economies. West Germany was able to become a global manufacturing center by the mid-1950s, and the policies tried there were successfully used to rejuvenate Western economies during the early Cold War.
The elimination of the United States Agency for International Development will likely cede significant influence to other powers, such as the People’s Republic of China and the EU.
Democratic backsliding such as the removal of federal oversight of corporations and the unwillingness to release documents concerning certain investigations may have sent a message of US weakness to the rest of the world.
Probst doesn’t believe that US relations with Europe were inevitably going to deteriorate since the beginning of the year. Instead, his thesis was that the US made a choice to go against Europe in favor of improving relations with Russia, if only for a photo-op in Alaska.
